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Talking to Tim Hollo after the last election, it doesn’t look like he’s planning to run again in Canberra. I’m not sure that he’s not changed his mind, but it would have a big impact on the Green vote here, I would argue. There’s not really much of a path to anyone but Labor winning in Canberra, and even more so without a well-known local candidate like Hollo to drive the Green vote.
Hollo was a strong candidate that would be perfect if the Greens had safe sests. As it stands he isn’t exactly a household name, nor was he particularly well positioned to appeal outside the core Green demographics.
Canberra is tough for Greens compared to other heavily left leaning seats as shown by them not winning a single booth. But it’s winnable for Greens if a few things line up. A disappointing Labor government that pisses off the public servants is the right spark for it. David Pocock has shown the value of a local representative that isn’t aligned to a major party. The federal Green party room hasn’t shown much interest in Canberra issues (like the NCA) – that would need to change for a serious tilt.
If Shane Rattenbury leaves ACT politics and runs for Canberra he could win. His track record of working constructively with Labor would go down well here. Maybe Rebecca Vassarotti as well if she doesn’t survive the 2024 ACT election.
It will still be tough for Greens to come out on top in contests where Libs come 3rd. Hollo benefited from an open ticket in 2022 – even then Labor was too far ahead and gained votes after the Liberal exclusion.
But if Greens can start winning seats like Cooper and Wills then Canberra makes sense as a target.